23 January 2021

Pascal's wager

If you were to go through my books (and could you please put everything back where you found it?) you'd also find a Bible. I haven't read it yet. I don't know if I ever will. I use it for reference, when I need to look something up. As an atheist I can be excused if I can't be bothered to read it, but most religious people have never read it either. What's their excuse? Is it just laziness?


If I truly believed that there was a God, and I was told that he gave us a book, I think I would be very keen to read it. I wouldn't be wasting time reading The Uncanny X-Men. (Well, perhaps I would alternate between the two.) I would read it cover to cover, eager to know what's in it. 


(Of course, after reading it, I would then be very disappointed. Coming from a being that, allegedly, has created time and space out of nothing, I would expect the Bible to blow my mind. I would expect it to be the best book ever. Instead what you find is a book that is often narrow-minded and that it doesn't really say anything that people didn't know already. It's all very anticlimactic, the first clue that perhaps things are not quite as we've been told.)


On some level religious people must know that the Bible it's just an old book written by people like you and I, a book as divine as a sack of potatoes. (Actually I take it back. Potatoes are great.) And it's not just the Bible. I also think that, deep down, religious people know that prayer doesn't work either. Let's consider a hypothetical scenario.


Let's imagine a charter flight, let's say from Boston to Dallas. The passengers are all members of a Baptist congregation, all very devout people, and they're going to some big religious event. Halfway through the flight all the engines fail, and both pilots die of a heart attack or something. (I know, that's unlikely, but bear with me.) 


As the aeroplane starts to lose altitude, panic ensues. But then the Baptist minister stands up and says "Calm down, brothers and sisters. Everything is fine. I'm just going to make a quick prayer to God and He will safely land the plane at our destination. It's all cool. Have some peanuts." Do you think they'll feel reassured and go back to their movie? I think they'll start screaming and shitting themselves, including the minister. And for good reason, because their ass is about to crash. 


So if that's how people really feel, why do they pretend? A possible answer could be the so-called Pascal's wager, named after French philosopher Blaise Pascal (1623-62). According to Pascal, the smart thing to do would be to behave as though God exists. Pascal reasons that if there's no God, then nothing will happen to you after you die whether you believed or not. But if there is a God, then believers will go to Heaven while non-believers will go to Hell. It's all summarized in an old Nepalese saying: "Maybe true. Maybe not true. Better you believe." 


Setting aside the fact that Pascal and the Nepalese are probably talking about two different gods (which one should we choose?), they are still missing the point. Theirs is not an argument for the existence of God. All they're saying is that, given all the possibilities, you would be better off if you believed. That's fine. The problem is that if you don't (and they make no attempt to convince you of God's existence), then there's really not much you can do, is there? I suppose you could pretend to believe in God (and that's what religious people seem to be doing), but that would be pointless, because God would know that you were faking it the whole time.


For example, let's say that I decide to take Pascal's advice and I start going to church every week. You know, just in case. Then one day I die, and it turns out that indeed there is a God. Not only that. It's the Christian God too! That was lucky! So I'm queuing up with all the other people that died that day, feeling rather relieved that I started to go to church, until finally it's my turn to face the Creator. He says to me:    


- Now, who do we have here? Oh yes, Marco Nacher. I remember you. You're going to Hell. Next!


- Whoa, hold on a second. Why am I going to Hell? I went to church every week. I even took Holy Communion.


- You think I'm an idiot, don't you? You think I don't know that during mass you kept thinking about filth? Stop wasting my time, I've got a lot of work to do. Next!


It's just not gonna work. You either believe or you don't. And while I do try to keep an open mind about everything, I just feel that perhaps that Nepalese proverb should be changed into "Maybe true. Maybe not true. Sounds like cow poop to me."